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Thinking in Bets

By: Annie Duke - Read: June 27, 2024 - Rating: 7/10

The correct framework for all long-term decision making. Reality is fundamentally unpredictable. Don't try to perfectly map out the future. Don't develop a dependence on certainty. Don't fear risk and failure. Life is a game of poker, not chess.

Instead of thinking in certainties, think in bets. Map out the possibilities, then assign probabilities to each. Make decisions thoughtfully and understand the risk you take on, but don't avoid failure.

Failure in the short-term is inevitable in a probabilistic world. But success in the long-term is inevitable for those who constantly evaluate bets, make decisions, take on risk, and update beliefs to improve future decisions.

This framework may seem obvious, but few people have internalized its implications and practice it with their lives. Read for the wisdom of one of the best female poker players of all time applying her philosophy to life decisions and company building.